Ukraine and Russia face significant export declines amid ongoing conflict

Ukraine is facing a significant decline in agricultural exports. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture estimates that wheat exports for the 2026-2027 marketing period will reach approximately 8.3 million metric tons, a 53% decrease compared to the previous year. Total agricultural exports are projected to fall to 29.6 million metric tons, down from previous estimates of 64.4 million metric tons. Russian attacks on Odesa ports, which handle 90% of grain exports, have forced the country to seek alternative land routes through Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary, though these lack the same capacity. Additionally, low Danube water levels due to drought have limited river transport. Kyiv has requested €220 million from the European Commission to subsidize interest on loans for small and medium-sized farms.

Simultaneously, Russian crude oil seaborne exports have dropped to a three-month low, averaging 3.71 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to August 9. This decline follows Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which previously forced unrefined crude into the export market. While a recent lull in attacks allowed Russian refineries to conduct repairs and absorb more crude, strikes on processing units have increased again in August. Ukrainian forces targeted five refineries in the first week of the month and additional facilities recently, impacting loading capacities at key export points like Novorossiysk.