Ukraine grain exports face disruptions from Russian attacks and low Danube levels

Ukrainian grain exports are facing significant disruptions due to intensified Russian attacks on Black Sea ports, forcing Kyiv to seek alternative transit routes through neighboring countries like Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary. The Institute for the Study of War warns that these attacks could cause Ukrainian agricultural exports to drop by as much as 54% in the 2026-2027 season.

Adding to these security concerns, record-low water levels on the Danube River are straining vital logistics corridors. Heat waves and lack of rain have restricted barge capacities, increasing freight costs and causing delays for both Ukrainian grain and Romanian agricultural products moving toward the Port of Constanta.

While Romania remains a critical component of the European Commission’s ‘Solidarity Lanes’ project, the combination of port blockades and river navigation issues creates a bottleneck. Ukrainian officials have noted that over 30 million tons of grain and oilseeds are at risk if port blockades continue, as alternative land and river routes can only handle approximately 50-55% of the monthly capacity of the Black Sea ports.