El Niño threatens floods, disease and food insecurity across East Africa and Asia

A rapidly intensifying El Niño weather pattern is projected to peak between October and December 2026, with an 81 % chance of becoming one of the strongest events since 1950, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. The International Rescue Committee warned that Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan are among the countries at highest risk of severe flooding, disease outbreaks, drought and famine. In Kenya the disaster plan has been activated; Somalia’s capital Mogadishu has already seen repeated flooding, and the U.S.‑funded FEWS NET flags a credible risk of famine if rains match 1997‑23 events. The World Bank cautions that rice yields could fall by 20‑50 % in the hardest‑hit parts of South Asia and East Africa, tightening food security for hundreds of millions. The United Nations’ humanitarian chief said the agency can release up to $100 million from its emergency fund and has already allocated $20 million to six countries to fund anticipatory actions such as cash transfers, water, and shelter. Climate scientists note record‑high equatorial Pacific temperatures, describing the situation as “an enormous story of huge consequence for the world.” Parallel analyses warn that the same El Niño could raise inflation and strain economies in Colombia, Brazil, Peru and other Latin‑American nations, while the Philippines prepares for a “super” El Niño coinciding with a peak season for super‑typhoons. Humanitarian groups urge donors to fund preventive measures now rather than wait for disaster.