Uruguay braces for El Niño‑driven warmth and rain and an incoming polar cold wave

Meteorologists say the El Niño phenomenon, now developing, will shape Uruguay's climate over the coming months and could remain active until mid‑2027. Winter temperatures are expected to stay above normal averages, with less persistent cold spells but continued occasional frosts. From spring onward, especially between September and December, the north and coastal regions are forecast to receive markedly higher rainfall and thunderstorms, raising the risk of localized flooding, boosting pasture growth, and potentially challenging crop timing. The warmer, wetter conditions may also increase mosquito‑borne disease risks.

At the same time, a new polar air mass is set to cross the Southern Cone later this week, bringing a sharp temperature drop to near or below 0 °C in interior Uruguay, with similar cold snaps expected in central and eastern Argentina and southern Brazil. The cold front will not be accompanied by rain, allowing events such as the Fiesta del Chocolate in Nueva Helvecia to proceed, but authorities advise extra protection for vulnerable people, livestock and frost‑sensitive crops.