Mexico‑US trade deal review raises uncertainty as Canada steps back

Moody’s warned that the ongoing review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada trade pact could shift toward separate bilateral agreements, noting Canada’s absence from the negotiation schedule and the possibility of annual reviews if the treaty isn’t extended in 2026. The agency still expects Mexico to keep preferential US market access, with trade between the two nations reaching about $872 billion in 2025.

Mexican business groups, including CONCANACO and the state‑level council Concaem, stressed that record‑high exports to the United States – $50.7 billion in April – demand a stable trade framework. They called for certainty to protect supply chains, investment and jobs, especially in sectors such as automotive, steel, agriculture and digital services.

At the same time, Mexican agribusiness leaders warned that the U.S. Trade Representative may impose seasonal quotas or stricter sanitary rules on Mexican fruits and vegetables, which could hurt producers in Michoacán, Jalisco and Sonora.

Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard confirmed that formal talks between Mexico and the United States have begun in Washington and will continue despite recent comments from President Donald Trump questioning the treaty’s future. Ebrard said the negotiations cover agriculture, labor, environment, rules of origin, automotive, steel, aluminum and 13 other topics, and that about 85 % of Mexican exports to the United States remain tariff‑free under the current pact.

The International Chamber of Commerce’s Open Market Index highlighted growing volatility in trade policies, particularly in the United States, as a new barrier to investment and long‑term supply‑chain planning. The report referenced the T‑MEC review as a critical test for regional competitiveness.