US Beef Prices Surge as Screwworm Outbreak and USMCA Trade Talks Heighten Risks

A parasitic New World screwworm outbreak that began in Mexico has spread to Texas and New Mexico, decimating cattle herds and driving U.S. beef prices up more than 20% since January 2025. The disease, combined with severe drought, has reduced Mexico’s cattle population to its lowest level since the 1950s and caused an 80% drop in live cattle imports to the United States.

The decline in cross‑border livestock flows is intensifying uncertainty around the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA), whose 16‑year sunset clause requires a decision by July 1 2026. Negotiators fear that a lapse could cut U.S. cattle imports by up to 50%, further inflating consumer beef costs.

In response, the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service approved $105 million for 40 bio‑security projects aimed at preventing the screwworm from establishing in U.S. livestock. The funding will expand surveillance with drones, improve sterile‑fly production, and develop new wound‑detection tools. Cases remain relatively stable at 11–12 active detections, but officials warn that the threat persists and could jeopardize the integrated North American beef market.