U.S. consumers prioritize value in 2026 holiday spending forecasts

U.S. consumers are approaching the 2026 holiday season with a focus on value and intentionality as they balance financial pressures with a desire for meaningful experiences. According to a study by Circana, average holiday spending is expected to be approximately $779, a slight decrease from $796 the previous year. Circana forecasts fourth-quarter holiday spending to fluctuate between a 1% decline and a 2.5% increase compared to 2025.

Complementary data from the ICSC suggests a more optimistic growth forecast, predicting retail sales to increase between 4.3% and 4.9%, with total spending reaching $1.7 trillion. The ICSC report notes that 78% of consumers plan to spend the same as or more than last year, though many express concern regarding household debt and the job market.

While shoppers are becoming more discerning and value-conscious, they remain resilient. Many are prioritizing holiday purchases and experiences over other financial commitments, seeking competitive pricing and convenience to make their budgets go further.