U.S. Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh's First FOMC Meeting Signals Hawkish Shift

Kevin Warsh opened his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference with a markedly hawkish tone, abandoning forward guidance and shortening the policy statement. The Fed’s dot‑plot showed nine of eighteen participants projecting rate hikes by year‑end, and the median forecast for 2026 rose to 3.75 %. Markets reacted with a stronger U.S. dollar, higher front‑end Treasury yields (the two‑year rose over 4 basis points), modest equity declines, and falling gold, silver and oil prices.

Warsh also announced five internal task forces targeting communications, balance‑sheet policy, data sources, productivity/AI, and inflation frameworks, suggesting a move toward tighter monetary conditions and reduced policy visibility.