US fertility rate falls 25% since 2007 as immigrant mothers account for 25% of births

According to reports from the Congressional Budget Office, the total fertility rate in the United States is projected to reach 1.58 births per woman in 2025. This represents a 25.5% decline from the 2.12 rate recorded in 2007, which was the last time the rate remained above the threshold required for natural population replacement.

Data indicates that foreign-born mothers now account for approximately 22% to 25% of all births in the U.S., totaling between 800,000 and 900,000 children annually. While foreign-born women currently maintain a higher fertility rate (1.79 births per woman) compared to U.S.-born women (1.53 births per woman), both groups remain below the replacement level.

Projections suggest that fertility rates will continue to decline through 2056. The rate for foreign-born women is expected to drop by 7.3% to 1.66 births per woman, a steeper decline than the projected 2% drop among U.S.-born women. These demographic shifts point toward an aging population, with annual deaths projected to exceed annual births as early as 2030. The reports suggest that without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to decrease.