El Niño forecasted as very strong, 81% chance of being one of the biggest since 1950

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and NOAA have raised the probability that the current El Niño will become a “very strong” event to 81 % for the October‑December 2026 period, a level that would place it among the strongest recorded since systematic measurements began in 1950. The agency also estimates a 97 % chance that the phenomenon will persist into early spring 2027.

Experts note that such intensity can alter global weather patterns: drier conditions in Australia, wetter winters in East Africa and the southern United States, and significant shifts in rainfall and temperature across Brazil, Mexico and other Latin‑American nations. In Brazil, farmers face redistributed rains that could benefit soy and corn in the south while threatening crops in the north‑central regions. Mexico’s weather service warns of reduced summer rains in central and southern zones and increased winter precipitation in the north. The event also raises concerns for global food‑supply chains, with analysts pointing to heightened price volatility for staple commodities such as soy, corn, rice and sugar.

Scientists link the growing intensity to climate change, noting that warmer oceans increase the variance of El Niño events. The forecast has prompted governments and disaster‑response agencies to prepare early‑warning systems and mitigation measures across the affected regions.