US ground beef prices surge 20% amid screwworm outbreak and trade deal uncertainty

Ground beef prices in the United States have risen by more than 20% since January 2025. The spike is driven by a screwworm parasite that originated in cattle in Mexico and has spread to south Texas and New Mexico, exacerbating a cattle herd decline already caused by drought. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) – with negotiations slated for a July 1, 2026 deadline – threatens cross‑border cattle and beef trade, further tightening supplies.

Facing higher beef costs, American shoppers are turning to cheaper protein options. Reddit‑sourced suggestions include ground turkey, chicken thighs, rotisserie chicken, black beans, lentils, eggs and pork shoulder, all presented as more affordable substitutes for ground beef in a range of dishes.

The integration of beef markets across the United States, Canada and Mexico means that disruptions in one country quickly affect the whole North American supply chain, heightening concerns for consumers and producers alike.