USMCA (T‑MEC) review draws mixed signals as Trump stalls while Mexico pushes extension

Mexico and the United States concluded a final round of bilateral talks in Washington ahead of the formal review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA, known in Spanish as T‑MEC) that is set to begin on 1 July. Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard met U.S. trade representative Jameson Greer to discuss rules of origin, agricultural market access, automotive supply‑chain rules and other technical issues.

Former President Donald Trump, speaking at the G7 summit in France, said he would “rather not have the agreement” but might sign it, leaving the United States’ stance ambiguous. Trump’s comments contrast with Canada and Mexico’s expressed desire to extend the pact automatically for another 16 years. If the three governments reach a consensus before the July deadline, the agreement will roll over until 2042; otherwise a ten‑year cycle of annual reviews will begin, potentially leading to expiration in 2036.

Analysts at Moody’s note that the United States may pursue separate bilateral tracks with Mexico and Canada, but they consider a breakup of the trilateral framework unlikely. Their outlook foresees Mexico retaining preferential access to the U.S. market, while the overall review could extend into 2027 and create uncertainty for investors and supply‑chain planning.

A second preparatory round of negotiations delivered formal Mexican proposals and set a third technical meeting for the week of 20 July in Mexico City, keeping the review process on schedule despite political uncertainty.