US Study Finds Early Replacement of Gasoline Cars with EVs Slashes CO2 Emissions

Researchers from the University of California, Santa Cruz and the University of California, Santa Barbara analyzed more than 400 gasoline and electric vehicle models over a 16‑year lifespan. Published in *Science*, the study shows that retiring a gasoline car after just one year and substituting it with an electric vehicle can cut total CO₂ emissions by up to 58 % for the entire period, and by 44 % if the swap occurs after two years. The carbon debt of manufacturing an electric car is offset after roughly three years of use, after which emissions savings multiply. In 92 % of the scenarios examined, early replacement produced lower overall emissions, though exceptions exist for low‑mileage vehicles, plug‑in hybrids, and regions with coal‑heavy electricity mixes. The authors suggest expanding scrappage and replacement programs to include young gasoline cars, while noting that a blanket recommendation to discard every gasoline vehicle is not warranted.