US tariffs and European space launch capacity face challenges

An analysis by the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) indicates that US tariffs may primarily harm the United States itself. Based on a synthesis of over twenty international institutional estimates, the study suggests that a 10% blanket US tariff could reduce US GDP by 0.6% to 0.8%, while increasing US inflation by 0.3 to 1.1 percentage points. For the Eurozone, the impact is expected to be a reduction in demand for European products rather than direct price inflation.

Separately, concerns are rising regarding a projected shortage of launch vehicles in Europe between 2029 and 2031. While the US and China have launched hundreds of satellites in recent years, Europe's capacity remains limited. The demand for launches is expected to peak due to upcoming missions such as the Iris2 communication constellation, the Galileo navigation system expansion, and the Copernicus Earth observation program. Efforts to increase capacity include the production ramp-up of the Ariane 6 rocket and the resumption of Vega C flights.