USDA cuts US wheat forecast, sparking worldwide grain market shifts

USDA wheat forecast global grain shipments sorghum futures maize exports Russian wheat prices

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2026/27 wheat forecast to 1.536 billion bushels, the smallest U.S. harvest since 1970, and trimmed corn ending stocks, while soybean output was nudged higher. The revision reflects reduced acreage in Canada and drought damage in the United States, and it came amid heightened Russia‑Ukraine tensions that have disrupted Black Sea shipping.

A simultaneous USDA update reduced global cereal production by 2.6 million tonnes, with the EU’s output falling sharply and modest increases in barley, sorghum and oats. Grain shipments worldwide rose 13 % year‑on‑year, led by a 15 % jump to China and a 137 % surge in U.S. grain exports to China, despite risks from the Strait of Hormuz and fertiliser shortages.

CME Group announced plans to launch sorghum‑basis futures, offering a new tool to hedge price differences between sorghum and corn. South Africa’s maize exports are on track for a 50 % rise over the previous year, driven by renewed demand from Vietnam, South Korea and Japan. Russian wheat export prices jumped as Black Sea and Hormuz shipping constraints tightened. Zimbabwe accelerated grain reserve deliveries ahead of an anticipated El Niño drought, and Latin American soy and corn markets showed mixed price movements as Chinese demand and South American supply evolved.