US‑Iran ceasefire deal lifts markets and strengthens the forint

A tentative framework agreement between the United States and Iran, including a 60‑day cease‑fire and talks on broader sanctions relief, lifted geopolitical risk and sent oil prices tumbling. Brent crude fell about 5 % to roughly $82 per barrel, prompting a sharp drop in European gas prices – the Dutch TTF fell 7.34 % – and a rally across equity markets.

In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.32 %, the S&P 500 gained 1.15 % and the Nasdaq added 2.30 % at the open. European indexes were mixed: the FTSE 100 slipped 0.01 %, while Germany’s DAX jumped 1.5 % and France’s CAC 40 rose 1.07 %.

In Hungary, the forint surged to a five‑year high, trading below 350 per euro as the currency benefitted from lower energy costs. Inflation fell to 1.8 % in May, prompting analysts at K&H Bank to expect the Magyar Nemzeti Bank to cut its policy rate by up to 0.25 % at the next meeting, with further reductions possible if the lower oil price environment persists. The combined effect of cheaper oil, a stronger forint and easing inflation is projected to keep Hungary’s 2026 inflation forecast under 4 %.