USMCA negotiations: Report warns of major job losses if trade deal collapses

USMCA trade negotiations tariffs manufacturing sector employment projections

A new report commissioned by the Canadian American Business Council (CABC) and conducted by Oxford Economics warns of significant employment shifts depending on the outcome of USMCA negotiations. The study analyzed three scenarios: maintaining the status quo, a successful renegotiation, and a total breakdown of the agreement.

Under a successful renegotiation, the report projects an increase of 98,000 Canadian jobs and 137,000 U.S. jobs by 2027. Conversely, a complete breakdown of the agreement could result in 102,000 fewer jobs in Canada and 214,000 fewer jobs in the United States by 2027. Manufacturing is identified as the sector that would face the greatest impact across all scenarios.

The economic analysis suggests that tariffs would not increase the size of the U.S. manufacturing sector or reduce the U.S. trade deficit. As negotiations continue, Canadian and American officials, including Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, are engaged in talks to establish a proposal for U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of upcoming tariff deadlines.