USMCA renewal faces uncertainty as US President questions agreement

The United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) is approaching its first mandatory joint review, set for July 1, 2026. Analysts say President Donald Trump has signaled ambivalence, stating he “would rather not have the agreement” but may sign it, leaving the three parties without a clear path. If renewal is not secured, the pact could enter an annual review cycle, creating ongoing uncertainty for businesses that have relied on duty‑free access.

American agricultural leaders are urging the pact’s preservation, noting that USMCA underpins roughly $1.9 trillion in North American trade and supports about 500,000 full‑time jobs. In 2024, US agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico surpassed $60 billion, accounting for a third of total farm sales. Stakeholders warn that losing duty‑free status could raise grocery prices by about $700 per household annually and further strain already tight margins for farmers in the Midwest.

The trade deal has also insulated sectors from recent tariffs, but the President has used other legal tools to levy duties on USMCA‑compliant products, adding to concerns about future policy shifts.