Vietnam braces for strong El Niño as temperatures rise up to 2 °C above average

The National Center for Hydro‑Meteorological Forecasting says the El Niño event will intensify through August‑October 2026, with a 90 % chance of reaching strong to very strong intensity and an 81 % probability of a “super” El Niño in October‑December.

Nationwide average temperatures are projected to be 1.5‑2 °C higher than the long‑term mean, with the Central Highlands seeing rises of 2‑2.5 °C. Heat‑wave days are expected to increase, especially across the central coastal provinces from Thanh Hóa to Huế in August‑September.

Rainfall distribution will become uneven: the Quảng Trị‑Đà Nẵng corridor and the Quảng Ngãi‑Lâm Đồng and southern regions may see 10‑25 % to 25‑50 % less rain, while the northern coastal area, Thanh Hóa‑Hà Tĩnh and some northern highlands could receive 10‑20 % more, with isolated increases of up to 30 %. The frequency of tropical storms and depressions over the South China Sea is also expected to be below average.

Despite the overall warming, colder air masses may still affect the country, with a higher likelihood of strong cold spells in January 2027, particularly in the northern mountains, bringing risks of frost and occasional snow.