Vietnam braces for stronger heat, drought and storm risks as El Niño intensifies

The Vietnam National Center for Hydro‑Meteorological Forecasting has confirmed that El Niño officially formed in early June and is expected to persist through the end of 2026, with a 60‑65 % chance of becoming very strong, comparable to the 2015‑2016 event. Forecasts indicate nationwide temperature anomalies of 0.5‑1.5 °C, rising to 1‑2 °C in October‑December, and a broad 25‑50 % reduction in rainfall across most regions. The central, highland and southern areas face heightened drought risk, potential water shortages and salt‑water intrusion, while the overall number of tropical cyclones may drop but the storms that do occur could be unusually intense.

In parallel, meteorologists project six to seven tropical depressions or storms over the next three months, with heavy rain expected in northern Vietnam from 15‑18 June delivering 100‑200 mm regionally and isolated totals over 350 mm. The intensified rainstream has already triggered flooding in parts of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City and prompted warnings of landslides in Quảng Ninh, Hải Phong and other provinces. China’s national weather agency issued an emergency Level II rain warning, underscoring the broader regional weather volatility. Authorities have urged local agencies to review drainage bottlenecks, reinforce vulnerable slopes and activate emergency response measures.