Vietnam coffee exports rise as falling prices impact Italian roasters

Vietnam, a major global producer of robusta coffee, is seeing a shift in market dynamics that directly impacts the Italian coffee industry. While Vietnam exported approximately 15% more coffee in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the previous year, its total revenue fell by 7% due to a significant drop in average selling prices.

This decrease in prices is driven by abundant supply and the release of stocks accumulated during periods of high prices. For Italian roasters, who import over 640,000 tons of green coffee in 2025, this trend offers relief from the price hikes seen in previous years. Italy remains the second-largest customer of Vietnamese coffee, following Germany.

Despite favorable production forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which predict a third consecutive year of growth, climate risks persist. The El Niño phenomenon, with a 75% probability of remaining active until early 2027, poses threats of drought and irregular rainfall in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s primary production hub.