Vietnam confronts intense heat and drought as strong El Niño develops

The National Center for Hydro‑Meteorological Forecasting confirmed that a very strong El Niño has formed, with sea‑surface temperature anomalies reaching +0.5 °C in May and +0.7 °C in early June 2026. The probability of a very strong event is estimated at 60‑65 %, comparable to the 2015‑2016 episode and among the strongest since 1950. The phenomenon is expected to intensify through the rest of 2026 and could persist into early 2027.

For Vietnam, the outlook predicts nationwide temperature rises of 0.5‑1.5 °C above average, up to 1‑2 °C higher in the October‑December period. Rainfall is projected to decline by 25‑50 % across most regions, especially the South Central Coast, Central Highlands and South, raising the risk of severe drought, water shortages and salt‑water intrusion in the Mekong Delta. While the total number of tropical storms may decrease, occasional very strong cyclones could still cause significant damage. The forecast echoes impacts recorded during the 2015‑2016 El Niño, which brought record‑lasting heatwaves and widespread agricultural stress.