Vietnam's economy forecast to grow 8.5% in 2026 as UOB raises GDP outlook

Vietnam GDP forecast UOB 8.5% growth ADB Southeast Asia growth consumer spending Vietnam upper‑middle‑income status

Singapore’s UOB bank raised its 2026 Vietnam GDP growth forecast to 8.5%, up from an earlier 7% estimate, after the economy posted 8.39% year‑on‑year growth in the second quarter and an 8.18% increase in the first half of the year. The bank highlighted balanced gains across industry, construction, services and agriculture, strong demand for AI‑related manufacturing, and inflation averaging 4.4%—within the government’s 4.5% target. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) continues to rank Vietnam as the fastest‑growing economy in Southeast Asia, maintaining a 7.2% growth projection for 2026 and 7.0% for 2027, the highest in the region. Analysts note that domestic consumption is becoming a key engine of growth, with retail sales of goods and services up 12.9% year‑on‑year in the first half of 2026 and the middle class expanding. Vietnam’s per‑capita GNI rose to US$4,970, moving the country into the World Bank’s upper‑middle‑income category. Together, these indicators underscore Vietnam’s robust economic momentum and its resilience to external shocks such as Middle‑East geopolitical tensions.