Vietnam on track to overtake Thailand as Southeast Asia's second-largest economy

Vietnam is undergoing a significant economic shift, projected to overtake Thailand as Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP). While Thailand maintains a higher GDP per capita, Vietnam’s growth rate is substantially higher. Recent data shows Vietnam achieved a 9.95% growth rate in the third quarter of 2026, whereas Thailand’s growth remained below 2%.

Financial experts and organizations like the IMF and World Bank indicate that Vietnam is on track to surpass Thailand in total nominal GDP by approximately 2029. This surge is driven by intense efforts to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), an expanding local manufacturing base, and the integration of global technology and retail brands into its economy.

Following decades of Doi Moi reforms, Vietnam has transitioned from a centrally planned economy to an upper-middle-income status. The government has set ambitious targets to achieve at least 10% annual growth between 2026 and 2030, aiming for high-income, developed country status by 2045. Other indicators of this expansion include Vietnam’s rising rank in global innovation and tourism development indices.