Vietnam stock market could rebound 80‑100% after steep declines, says Vinacapital analyst

Senior investment director Đinh Đức Minh of Vinacapital explained that Vietnam’s equity market has historically recovered 80‑100% within one to two years after major sell‑offs. He cited previous corrections – the 2018 trade‑war‑related slowdown, the 2020 COVID‑19 pandemic, the 2022 corporate‑bond crisis linked to Vạn Thịnh Phát, and the 2023 U.S. tariff episode – as examples where prices fell sharply but later surged.

Minh noted that the current pull‑back is not driven by a specific negative event; rather, investor sentiment is weak and interest rates have risen. While the VN‑Index shows a 32% gain since the start of last year, this rise is largely due to VinGroup stocks. Excluding VinGroup, the index has barely moved, up about 2% over the past 18 months, indicating that many stocks are now cheap and could be poised for a broad recovery.

He warned that the market’s underlying fundamentals remain sound, and the cheap valuations may attract investors once confidence improves.