Vietnam's economy forecast 9.5% growth in 2026 as Standard Chartered raises outlook

Vietnam's gross domestic product expanded 8.39% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by strong performance in manufacturing, services and industrial production, which rose over 10% year‑on‑year. Retail sales grew nearly 13% and export earnings rose to about $35.9 billion, but the pace is seen as fragile because of infrastructure bottlenecks, land‑clearance delays and limited credit for small‑ and medium‑sized enterprises.

Standard Chartered upgraded its 2026 GDP growth projection for Vietnam to 9.5% and expects 11% growth in 2027. The bank also lowered its inflation outlook to 4.4% for 2026 and 3.3% for 2027 and signaled that the policy‑rate will stay stable to support growth while containing price pressures.

The Vietnamese government has set an ambitious target of roughly 11.9% growth for the second half of 2026 to push annual GDP growth above the 10% mark. It is accelerating public‑investment programmes, notably urban rail, high‑speed north‑south rail lines and other strategic infrastructure projects.

Analysts highlight sustained domestic demand, continued investment inflows and supportive fiscal and monetary policies as the main engines of growth, while noting external risks such as global inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions could affect the outlook.