Vietnam's stock market faces credit‑driven valuation reset amid IPO surge

The National Securities Institute (NSI) projects that borrowing by Vietnamese brokerage firms could rise by at least 40% in 2026, driven by higher GDP growth targets and a minimum 15% increase in system‑wide credit. Firms backed by parent banks, such as TCX, VPX and SSI, are expected to benefit most as they expand margin‑lending and proprietary trading. NSI also notes a forthcoming wave of IPOs that may total over $40 billion between 2026‑2028, supported by streamlined listing procedures and stricter governance rules.

Market analysts observe that the VN‑Index is currently in a corrective phase, trading around the 1,850‑1,860 point range. "Dù VN‑Index đang điều chỉnh, biên độ giảm vẫn nằm trong vùng kiểm soát quanh mốc 1.860 điểm," said Huỳnh Anh Huy of Kafi Securities. While foreign investors remain cautious due to exchange‑rate and bond‑yield pressures, domestic participants are waiting for clearer liquidity signals before increasing allocations. Technical support is seen near 1,840‑1,850 points, with resistance around 1,870‑1,940 points, suggesting a potential rebound if macro‑economic data stay stable.