Vietnam's VN-Index may retake historic highs as macro and technical support sharpen

Vietcap Securities projects that the VN‑Index could climb back toward its former peak, citing several macroeconomic tailwinds. A steep decline in global oil prices, driven by positive US‑Iran peace talks, has lowered domestic fuel costs and input expenses, helping to ease inflation. Vietnam’s economy grew 8.39 % year‑on‑year in Q2 2026, the second‑fastest pace since 2011, reinforcing expectations of sustained growth toward the government’s 11.9 % target. Vietcap also warns of a potential U.S. tariff of 12.5 % on Vietnamese goods under Section 301, which could pose a risk to investors.

Technically, the index has stayed above the MA150 trend line near 1,800 points and is supported by the MA50 at 1,860 and the MA20 at 1,835. In a base‑case scenario (60 % probability), the VN‑Index is expected to test the historic high range of 1,900‑1,930 points. A downside scenario (40 % probability) would see the index slipping back to the 1,800‑1,820 support region if selling pressure intensifies.

Other brokerages echo a cautious tone. Tiên Phong and Yuanta note the 1,830‑1,835 point zone as a key short‑term support, while CSI points to rising sell‑off liquidity and suggests the index may retest the 1,820 level. They advise investors to limit new purchases, prioritize risk management, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks in banking, securities, and defensive sectors.