Walmart captures 40% of US online grocery market as e‑grocery expands and shoplifting declines

U.S. online grocery sales are projected to reach $120 billion by 2028, growing at about 4.5% annually and accounting for roughly 12.7% of total grocery sales. Pickup is expected to become the largest channel, representing nearly 47% of e‑grocery transactions by the end of the forecast period.

Research from Brick Meets Click shows Walmart’s share of the online grocery market has surged to close to 40%, overtaking Amazon. Rapid delivery is a key driver: by early 2026, about 80% of Walmart’s online grocery orders are expected to be delivered the same day, with 18% arriving within one hour.

Retail loss‑prevention data indicate that shoplifting incidents fell 12.4% in 2025 and overall product theft dropped 8.1%. However, retailers reported a rise in other fraud types: 69% saw increased phone scams, 51% noted more member‑point abuse, and 42% experienced more gift‑card fraud, reflecting a shift of criminal activity from physical stores to digital channels.