El Niño phenomenon projected to impact South American coasts through 2027

Meteorological agencies and researchers warn of an extraordinary El Niño phenomenon affecting the Pacific coast of South America, with effects potentially lasting until mid-2027. The National Commission for the Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) reports that the 'El Niño Costero' region (Niño 1+2) has a high probability of reaching extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and January 2027.

In Peru, Senamhi and ENFEN predict significant temperature increases. Lima and the central coast could see temperatures 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above normal, with some areas recording heatwaves. Projections suggest that by February 2027, temperatures in Lima could reach 36 degrees Celsius, with a perceived heat index of up to 38 degrees Celsius. While the northern coast faces increased rainfall and rising river levels, the central coast may experience drier conditions with high solar radiation.

In Ecuador, cities like Guayaquil and Quito are experiencing variable weather, including high humidity, heat, and a high probability of afternoon rains. Researchers from CONICET note that accumulated ocean heat near the coasts of Peru and Ecuador is significantly higher than during previous major events like 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, providing substantial energy for evaporation and precipitation.

In Argentina, regions such as Santiago del Estero and Sáenz Peña are seeing shifts in weather patterns, including a transition from recent rains to clearer, warmer skies.