World Meteorological Organization warns of strong El Niño developing July‑September 2026

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says El Niño conditions have formed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to intensify rapidly, reaching strong to very‑strong intensity during the July‑September 2026 period. The agency’s monthly climate outlook notes sea‑surface temperatures are already above normal and many member‑state models converge on a rise of more than 2 °C in the central‑eastern Pacific, a threshold for a strong event.

WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo warned that the strengthening El Niño will raise the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and flooding across multiple regions, threatening agriculture, health systems and vulnerable communities. The organization is coordinating early‑warning support for governments and humanitarian groups.

Regional observations echo the outlook. In Vietnam, meteorologists report unusually high temperatures and below‑average rainfall in June, attributing the early impacts to the developing El Niño. Other reports cite potential indirect effects on European food imports and heightened flood risk in South America, Africa and parts of Asia.

The WMO emphasises that while El Niño is a natural climate cycle, its impacts are compounded by ongoing climate change, making preparedness essential for the coming months.