Polymarket users win and lose millions on 2026 World Cup prediction markets

Prediction‑market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have seen billions of dollars traded during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Individual traders placed multi‑million‑dollar bets on match outcomes, with some suffering huge losses – a user lost $1 million after Spain drew with Cape Verde, another nearly $9 million on Belgium beating Egypt, and $1.2 million on Argentina beating Algeria. Others profited spectacularly: a trader who bet $4.2 million that Turkey would not beat Paraguay collected about $7.9 million; another earned $4.7 million from a $427 k wager on the Spain–Cape Verde draw; and a user made $9.24 million in a single day after correctly picking four matches, including a $7.34 million payout on a $7.03 million bet that Iran would not defeat New Zealand. The overall trading volume on these platforms has exceeded $5 billion, surpassing previous sports betting peaks such as the Super Bowl and NBA Finals.