Monitor this situation.

Unsubscribe anytime.

[SITUATION] · [ACTIVE] · [BUSINESS]

52 clusters · 88 sources · 121 days · First seen 4 months ago · Last updated about 24 hours ago

US prediction markets grow amid regulatory scrutiny

Overview

The US prediction market landscape is experiencing rapid growth and intensifying regulatory scrutiny. Kalshi, which claims a 90% to 95% US market share, reported total trading volume exceeding $171 billion for 2026. A notable trend includes significant participation from young adults; users aged 18 to 21 have accounted for approximately $5.4 billion in trading volume so far this year, with roughly $3.9 billion of that directed toward sports-related events and parlays. In early September 2026, Kalshi continued offering aggressive promotions for sports and entertainment markets, particularly surrounding the start of the NFL season. High-profile trading activity was highlighted by a single trader securing a payout of nearly $4 million after correctly forecasting an upset at the US Open, specifically holding an $888,234.14 position on Ben Shelton to defeat Carlos Alcaraz, a match where the Spaniard was initially favored with a 75% win probability. Kalshi is also diversifying its product offerings and expanding its ecosystem. The platform has received CFTC approval to list perpetual futures for gold and silver, titled ‘GOLDPERP’ and ‘SILVERPERP’, which will track U.S. dollar spot prices 24/7 using the Pyth Network. Kalshi is also seeking regulatory approval to launch approximately 60 perpetual futures contracts tied to individual U.S. equities and ETFs, such as Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia. This move has drawn scrutiny from institutions like Citadel Securities regarding market oversight and potential risks like insider trading. Additionally, a partnership between trading technology provider ION and Coinbase aims to integrate Kalshi’s regulated event contracts directly into the Coinbase consumer app. As the NFL season begins, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly competing with traditional sportsbooks in the advertising space. While online sports betting is restricted to 30 U.S. states, prediction markets operate under different legal frameworks by classifying activities as swaps.

Entities

Kalshi · Polymarket · Commodity Futures Trading Commission · Major League Baseball · DraftKings

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Coverage disagrees

Sources make claims that cannot both be true. CLSTR reports the disagreement; it does not decide who is right.

"Polymarket provides a $20 trading bonus to new U.S. users who deposit $10, applicable to MLB prediction markets on July 28, 2026."

vs

"All three promotions target the MLB schedule on July 31, 2026, including matchups such as Red Sox vs Dodgers and Padres vs Rockies."

The first claim specifies the Polymarket bonus is applicable to MLB prediction markets on July 28, 2026, while the second claim asserts all promotions target the MLB schedule on July 31, 2026.

[DISPUTED] Polymarket provides a $20 trading bonus to new U.S. users who deposit $10, applicable to MLB prediction markets on July 28, 2026.
[DISPUTED] All three promotions target the MLB schedule on July 31, 2026, including matchups such as Red Sox vs Dodgers and Padres vs Rockies.
[● 7 SOURCES] Kalshi has raised approximately $1.12 billion through a private equity offering that began on April 3, 2026. bitcoinethereumnews.com · www.criptotendencias.com · cryptobriefing.com · crypto.news · journalducoin.com · +2 more
[● 5 SOURCES] The company closed a $1 billion Series F round in May 2026, which valued the firm at $22 billion. bitcoinethereumnews.com · cryptobriefing.com · crypto.news · journalducoin.com · cryptonomist.ch
[● 5 SOURCES] Kalshi is reportedly in discussions for a $750 million funding round that could value the company at $40 billion. bitcoinethereumnews.com · cryptobriefing.com · crypto.news · journalducoin.com · cryptonomist.ch
[● 3 SOURCES] The promotional offers from Kalshi and Polymarket are limited to legal U.S. states where the platforms operate.
[● 3 SOURCES] Annualized trading volume reached $178 billion by April 2026. bitcoinethereumnews.com · cryptobriefing.com · cryptonomist.ch
[● 3 SOURCES] The company claims to hold a 90% to 95% share of the US prediction market. bitcoinethereumnews.com · cryptobriefing.com · cryptonomist.ch
[● 2 SOURCES] Polymarket invite code CUSE grants a $20 bonus after a $10 deposit for new users covering MLB games.
[● 2 SOURCES] Polymarket promo code MASS provides a $20 trading bonus to new U.S. users who deposit at least $10.
[● 2 SOURCES] Both Kalshi promotions require identity verification before the bonus is credited.

Timeline

about 24 hours ago

[BUSINESS] 3 sources
Prediction markets challenge traditional sportsbooks in advertising
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are expanding their advertising presence, accounting for $50 million of the nearly $275 million spent on sports betting ads this year.
2 days ago

[BUSINESS] 10 sources
Kalshi expands into precious metals with CFTC-approved perpetual futures
Kalshi has secured CFTC approval to launch 24/7 gold and silver perpetual futures and is seeking to expand into U.S. equity-linked contracts.
3 days ago

[BUSINESS] 9 sources
Kalshi trader wins $3.8M on US Open upset
A Kalshi prediction market trader won nearly $4 million by correctly betting on Ben Shelton's US Open upset against Carlos Alcaraz. The platform is seeing high volume ahead of the NFL season.
6 days ago

[BUSINESS] 7 sources
Polymarket offers $50 sign-up bonuses for new US users
Polymarket is offering new US users a $50 trading bonus with a $10 deposit through various September 2026 promotional codes tied to sports and political events.
9 days ago

[BUSINESS] 8 sources
Kalshi offers promotional bonuses for prediction market trading
Kalshi is offering new users promotional bonuses and deposit matches to trade on prediction markets, including MLB, college football, and political outcomes.
12 days ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
Kalshi extends $25 referral bonus through college football Week 1
Kalshi has extended its $25 deposit match referral bonus through the first week of college football, allowing new users to turn a $25 deposit into $50 in trading funds for football and MLB markets.
12 days ago

[BUSINESS] 8 sources
Kalshi prediction market sees $5.4B in trades from users under 21
Young adults aged 18-21 have traded $5.4 billion on the prediction market Kalshi this year, raising concerns over a regulatory loophole that allows sports-related trading before the legal gambling age of 21.
14 days ago

[BUSINESS] 8 sources
Kalshi prediction market sees $3.9 billion in trading from users aged 18-21
Young adults aged 18-21 have traded approximately $3.9 billion on the regulated prediction market Kalshi this year, as the platform's total volume exceeds $171 billion.
15 days ago

[BUSINESS] 11 sources
Prediction markets offer user bonuses for sports trading
Prediction market platforms Polymarket, Kalshi, and ProphetX are offering sign-up bonuses for new users to trade on MLB, NFL preseason, and college football events.
16 days ago

[BUSINESS] 10 sources
Kalshi raises $1.12 billion in private equity offering
Kalshi has raised $1.12 billion in a private equity offering since April 2026, targeting $1.5 billion total. The prediction market operator reports massive growth in trading volume and revenue.
24 days ago

[BUSINESS] 12 sources
Prediction markets face regulatory scrutiny in US and Canada
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi face regulatory battles in the US and Canada as they expand into sports and politics, prompting new legal challenges and financial product developments.
24 days ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
Polymarket offers $20 trading bonus for new MLB users
Polymarket is offering new users a $20 bonus when they complete a minimum $10 trade on MLB games, subject to age and location requirements.
24 days ago

[BUSINESS] 5 sources
Kalshi offers $25 bonus for prediction market trades
Kalshi is offering new users a $25 bonus upon completing $25 in trades on prediction markets, including MLB games and the BMW Championship.
26 days ago

[BUSINESS] 6 sources
Polymarket issues new promotional codes for US users
Polymarket is offering new US users a $20 trading bonus via referral codes ‘MASS’ and ‘OREGON’ after a qualifying $10 deposit, coinciding with major MLB matchups.
26 days ago

[BUSINESS] 4 sources
Polymarket and Novig offer trading bonuses for MLB and WNBA markets
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Novig are offering promotional trading bonuses for users to trade on MLB and WNBA event contracts.
29 days ago

[BUSINESS] 5 sources
Kalshi offers up to $500 sign-up bonuses for prediction market traders
Kalshi is offering new US users sign-up bonuses of up to $500 for trading on prediction markets, including MLB, NFL, and reality TV, upon meeting specific trading requirements.
about 1 month ago

[BUSINESS] 6 sources
Kalshi offers up to $500 trading bonuses for new users
Kalshi is offering new US users a tiered trading bonus of up to $500 after they complete $25 in trades on its prediction markets, including sports, politics, and finance.
about 1 month ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
Kalshi and ProphetX offer promotions for NFL preseason trading
Prediction markets Kalshi and ProphetX are launching promotional offers for users to trade on NFL preseason games through contract-based forecasting.
about 1 month ago

[BUSINESS] 8 sources
Sports betting platforms launch various promotional offers for NHL and MLB
Multiple sportsbooks and prediction markets, including BetMGM, bet365, and FanDuel, are issuing promotional bonuses for NHL, MLB, and NFL preseason wagering.
about 1 month ago

[BUSINESS] 4 sources
Polymarket offers $20 trading bonus for new US users
New Polymarket users in the US can claim a $20 trading bonus by depositing $10, providing $30 in total funds for markets including MLB and Federal Reserve decisions.
about 1 month ago

[BUSINESS] 13 sources
Kalshi reports $148B in 2026 trading volume
Kalshi's 2026 trading volume has surpassed $148 billion, representing 85.5% of its lifetime activity and a massive increase over 2025 totals.
about 1 month ago

[BUSINESS] 4 sources
Polymarket rolls out new US referral codes with $20 and $50 sports‑betting bonuses
Polymarket introduced two US referral codes on Aug 4, 2026: OREGON gives a $20 bonus with a $10 deposit, and SILIVE a $50 bonus with a $20 deposit, both for MLB and other sports betting markets.
about 1 month ago

[BUSINESS] 12 sources
Polymarket and Kalshi roll out new US promo codes with up to $500 bonuses
Polymarket and Kalshi unveiled new U.S. promo codes, giving first‑time traders $20‑$500 bonuses for deposits and trades on sports, political and crypto markets as of Aug 2 2026.
about 1 month ago

[BUSINESS] 16 sources
US Sportsbooks Roll Out MLB Betting Bonus Promotions in August 2026
US sportsbooks FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Kalshi, Fanatics and others unveiled MLB betting bonuses ranging from $20 to $1,000 for new users in August 2026.
about 2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 14 sources
US Betting Sites Roll Out MLB Promo Bonuses for Late July 2026
U.S. betting platforms launch July 28‑29, 2026 MLB promo codes, offering bonuses from $20 to $1,500, with state‑age restrictions and trade‑or‑deposit requirements.
about 2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 16 sources
Kalshi, Polymarket and other platforms unveil up to $500 bonus promos for MLB betting
Kalshi, Polymarket, Bet365 and Betr roll out new bonus promos – up to $500 for Kalshi and $20‑$50 for Polymarket – for MLB and other sports, requiring $10‑$25 trades and U.S. residency.
about 2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
Polymarket offers $20 bonus for trading on LeBron James team odds
Polymarket gives new users a $20 bonus for trading on LeBron James' next team, using promo code FOX and a $10 trade.
about 2 months ago

[TECHNOLOGY] 13 sources
Polymarket’s $4.3 B World Cup Market Sets On‑Chain Record
Polymarket’s World Cup “Winner” market hit $4.3 billion on Polygon, a record for on‑chain prediction markets, while the platform launches U.S. promo codes for MLB, PGA, and MLS betting.
about 2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 9 sources
Polymarket and Kalshi unveil MLB trading promo codes for US users
Polymarket and Kalshi rolled out US‑only promo codes in July 2026, giving new users $10‑$50 bonuses for trading MLB games on their regulated prediction‑market platforms.
about 2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 11 sources
Polymarket and Kalshi roll out new $10‑$50 promo codes for UFC, MLB, NFL, NBA and World Cup betting
Polymarket and Kalshi unveiled new $10‑$50 promo codes for U.S. users to trade prediction markets on upcoming UFC, MLB, NFL, NBA and World Cup events.
about 2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 11 sources
Kalshi and Polymarket launch bonus promos for World Cup semifinals and MLB All-Star Game
Kalshi and Polymarket roll out new US‑only welcome bonuses – $10‑$15 for World Cup semifinals and $50 for the MLB All‑Star Game – requiring age 18+, a small deposit and trades on their prediction‑market sites.
2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
WTOP Promo Code Offers Cover World Cup and MLB Home Run Derby
WTOP promo code provides a $1,000 Fanatics Sportsbook bonus for World Cup betting and a $50 Polymarket bonus for MLB Home Run Derby trading.
2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 14 sources
World Cup and UFC 329 promo codes from Polymarket, Kalshi, Betr and others
US prediction‑market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, Betr, etc.) are offering sign‑up bonuses from $10 to $200 for the 2026 World Cup quarter‑finals and UFC 329, using promo codes such as STIFFS, BROAD, MASS, A‑
2 months ago

[SPORTS] 2 sources
USA favored over Belgium for World Cup Round of 16 as betting odds shift
Betting odds now favor the USA (52%) over Belgium (48%) in the World Cup Round of 16 after FIFA cleared forward Folarin Balogun; promo code ALCOM15 offers a $15 trading bonus.
2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 6 sources
Polymarket rolls out multiple $50 bonus codes for U.S. sports prediction markets
Polymarket offers new U.S. users a $50 bonus (with $20 deposit) via codes LABS, CUSE, MASS and SILIVE, covering MLB, UFC, golf and WNBA events.
2 months ago

[SPORTS] 7 sources
USA vs Belgium World Cup Round of 16 sparks Polymarket $50 bonus promotions
USA faces Belgium in the World Cup Round of 16; FIFA lifts Balogun’s suspension and Polymarket rolls out $50 bonus promo codes for U.S. traders.
2 months ago

[SPORTS] 6 sources
World Cup prediction markets roll out bonus promo codes for multiple knockout matches
Prediction‑market sites launch bonus codes for World Cup knockout games, offering credits ranging from $10 to $50 for trades on matches like Spain‑Portugal, Portugal‑Spain, Mexico‑England, USA‑Belgium, and more
2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
Polymarket launches $50 bonus invite codes OREGON and CUSE for July 4th weekend
Polymarket rolled out $50 bonus invite codes OREGON (Oregon) and CUSE (New York) for new U.S. users, creating a $70 starting balance for July 4th weekend World Cup, MLB, F1 and other markets.
2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 6 sources
Polymarket and Kalshi offer bonus codes for World Cup 2026 knockout matches
Polymarket and Kalshi launched U.S. bonus codes for World Cup 2026 knockouts – Polymarket’s ALCOM and MASS give $50 on a $20 deposit for Colombia‑Ghana and France‑Paraguay matches, while Kalshi’s OREGONLIVE1 d
2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 3 sources
Polymarket launches $50 bonus for new US users via promo codes
Polymarket gives US new users a $50 bonus after a $20 deposit via promo codes ELITE (nationwide) and MASS (Massachusetts), usable on sports, political and other prediction markets.
2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 10 sources
Polymarket gives new users $50 bonus for World Cup Round‑of‑16 trading
Polymarket offers a $50 bonus (after a $20 deposit) to new U.S. users for World Cup round‑of‑16 markets via various promo codes.
2 months ago

[BUSINESS] 3 sources
US Sports Betting Sites Offer Up to $1,000 Bonuses for MLB and World Cup
Fanatics, theScore Bet and Betr each offer new U.S. users bonuses—up to $1,000 or $200—for MLB and World Cup betting, with age and state eligibility rules.
3 months ago

[BUSINESS] 3 sources
Polymarket launches $50 World Cup bonus with new user promo codes
Polymarket gives new U.S. users a $50 bonus for depositing $20 and betting on World Cup matches using promo codes STIFFS, ELITE or SOUTH.
3 months ago

[BUSINESS] 3 sources
Polymarket launches backend engineer hiring drive and $50 new‑user bonus
Polymarket seeks a blockchain‑savvy backend engineer and offers US users a $50 sign‑up bonus with code ELITE after a $20 deposit.
3 months ago

[BUSINESS] 4 sources
Polymarket users win and lose millions on 2026 World Cup prediction markets
Polymarket and Kalshi saw billions bet on the 2026 World Cup, with traders losing up to $9 million but others winning up to $9.24 million in single‑day payouts.
3 months ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
Polymarket and Kalshi launch World Cup prediction market promo offers
Polymarket and Kalshi each offer World Cup‑linked bonuses for new users in the U.S., with $50 and $15 rewards respectively after qualifying deposits or trades.
3 months ago

[BUSINESS] 4 sources
Polymarket and Novig Launch Bonus Promotions for New Users
Polymarket offers new users a $50 bonus after a $20 deposit, while Novig gives $50 in coins after a $5 spend, both targeting US bettors for sports and World Cup events.
3 months ago

[BUSINESS] 3 sources
US Prediction Market Platforms Offer World Cup Bonus Promotions
Kalshi and Polymarket each offer US users World Cup bonuses – $10 via code RATE on Kalshi and $50 via code SOUTH on Polymarket – for new accounts meeting deposit and KYC requirements.
3 months ago

[BUSINESS] 3 sources
Polymarket launches $50 sign‑up bonus for MLB prediction markets
Polymarket offers U.S. users a $50 bonus after a $20 deposit to trade MLB prediction contracts, with promo codes for games like Cubs vs Giants and Dodgers vs Angels.
3 months ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
Polymarket rolls out $50 bonus promotions for US users
Polymarket offers US users a $20 deposit bonus of $50 via promo codes like ELITE, with a parallel offer tied to the Stanley Cup Final.
4 months ago

[BUSINESS] 3 sources
Polymarket rolls out $50 new‑user bonus with ELITE and NYPMAX promo codes
Polymarket gives new US users a $50 bonus for a $20 deposit using ELITE or NYPMAX promo codes.
4 months ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
Polymarket launches ELIDE promo code offering $20–$50 bonus to new US users
Polymarket's ELITE code gives new US users a $20‑$50 bonus after a $20 deposit, unlocking all‑state access to its prediction markets.

Sources

agrobrasil.org.br · al.com · allard.ubc.ca · audhalbritter.com · awfulannouncing.com · balver-hoehle.de · bestofneworleans.com · bitcoinethereumnews.com · blockcast.it · blockonomi.com · blocktempo.com · blog.nj.com · btc-echo.de · ca.sports.yahoo.com · cleveland.com · coinedition.com · coingape.com · cointelegraph.com · covers.com · criptotendencias.com · crossingbroad.com · crypto.news · cryptobreaking.com · cryptobriefing.com · cryptonomist.ch · defirate.com · denverstiffs.com · detlionblood32.wordpress.com · efj.org.jm · elitesportsny.com · europesays.com · exame.com · expo.mlive.com · expo.nj.com · fantasylabs.com · footyheadlines.com · fortune.com · foxsports.com · gcn.com · gizmodo.com · heavy.com · joshdoody.com · journalducoin.com · kedem.org · liveblog.wtop.com · liveblogwp.wtop.com · masslive.com · mlive.com

This summary has been updated 35 times: see revision history