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68 clusters · 137 sources · 159 days · First seen · Last updated

US prediction markets expand amid massive volume and youth's

Overview

The US prediction market landscape is experiencing massive growth and financial expansion. Kalshi, which claims a 90% to 95% share of the US market, has significantly scaled its operations, reporting annualized trading volumes of $178 billion by April 2026. The company has also secured substantial private equity, raising approximately $1.12 billion toward a $1.5 billion target, following a $1 billion Series F round that valued the firm at $22 billion.

Market activity remains driven by major sporting events, with platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and ProphetX utilizing promotional bonuses and referral incentives to attract users during MLB and NFL seasons. This surge has led to a notable trend of participation among young adults; users aged 18 to 21 have accounted for an estimated $5.4 billion in Kalshi trading volume this year, with $3.9 billion directed toward sports-related events.

This demographic shift has intensified regulatory and legal scrutiny. Critics argue that Kalshi’s status as a CFTC-regulated financial exchange creates a “loophole for underage gambling,” as it allows 18-year-olds access to markets that traditional state-regulated sportsbooks typically restrict to those 21 and older. This has resulted in legal challenges, including a lawsuit from New York State alleging the platform operates an unlicensed gambling service.

Additionally, professional bettors are increasingly migrating to prediction markets to avoid the account limits often imposed by traditional sportsbooks. While Kalshi and Polymarket continue to hit record-breaking volumes, observers remain focused on market integrity, specifically regarding whether high turnover reflects genuine liquidity or manipulative practices like wash trading.

Entities

Kalshi · Polymarket · Commodity Futures Trading Commission · Major League Baseball · Novig

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Coverage disagrees

Sources make claims that cannot both be true. CLSTR reports the disagreement; it does not decide who is right.

  • "Kalshi is reportedly in discussions for a $750 million funding round that could value the company at $40 billion."

    vs

    "The company closed a $1 billion Series F round in May 2026, which valued the firm at $22 billion."

    The claims provide different valuation and funding round details for Kalshi (one claims a $1 billion Series F at $22 billion in May 2026, the other claims a $750 million round at $40 billion).

  • "Polymarket provides a $20 trading bonus to new U.S. users who deposit $10, applicable to MLB prediction markets on July 28, 2026."

    vs

    "All three promotions target the MLB schedule on July 31, 2026, including matchups such as Red Sox vs Dodgers and Padres vs Rockies."

    One claim states Polymarket promotions apply to July 28, 2026, while the other states they target July 31, 2026.

Timeline

  1. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Prediction markets gain traction among bettors avoiding sportsbook limits

    Professional bettors are increasingly utilizing prediction markets to avoid the account limitations imposed by traditional sportsbooks following the legalization of sports betting in the US.

  2. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Kalshi and Polymarket hit $8.56 billion in two-day trading volume

    Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined $8.56 billion in two-day trading volume, driven by NFL, NCAA, and economic markets.

  3. [BUSINESS] 7 sources
    Prediction markets face regulatory battles in US and Canada

    Prediction market companies are spending millions to lobby against state-level gambling regulations in the US, while Canadian regulators focus on investor education regarding these emerging financial tools.

  4. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Kalshi gold contracts surpass Ether in September trading volume

    Kalshi’s 15-minute gold contracts recorded 542 million trades in September, generating $5 million in estimated fees and overtaking Ether in trading activity.

  5. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Kalshi launches stock index perpetual futures to expand product suite

    Kalshi has launched a US 500 stock index perpetual future and is seeking regulatory approval for a perpetual WTI crude oil contract to expand its derivatives offerings.

  6. [SPORTS] 3 sources
    College football Week 5 features major matchups and prediction market activity

    College football Week 5 features high-profile matchups, including Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State, alongside emerging rivalries and increased activity in sports prediction markets.

  7. [BUSINESS] 29 sources
    Prediction markets see $68B monthly volume amid regulatory scrutiny

    Prediction markets are seeing massive volume growth, reaching $68 billion monthly, while facing legal disputes over regulation and scrutiny regarding market integrity and potential addiction.

  8. [BUSINESS] 22 sources
    Kalshi faces regulatory scrutiny over crypto trading patterns

    Kalshi is facing CFTC scrutiny over alleged wash trading in its Ethereum perpetuals, while simultaneously filing to introduce margin trading and stock-based perpetual futures.

  9. [BUSINESS] 19 sources
    Kalshi faces wash trading allegations and seeks margin trading approval

    Kalshi faces wash trading allegations regarding its crypto volume while simultaneously seeking CFTC approval for margin trading and stock-based perpetual futures to attract institutional investors.

  10. [BUSINESS] 9 sources
    Prediction markets offer sign-up bonuses for sports trading

    Prediction market platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Novig are offering various sign-up bonuses for users to trade on college football, NFL, and MLB events.

  11. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Kalshi dominates non-sports prediction markets as volume hits $10 billion

    Kalshi has captured 96% of the non-sports prediction market, with weekly volume hitting a record $10 billion as it leverages mainstream retail apps like Robinhood and Coinbase.

  12. [BUSINESS] 7 sources
    Polymarket offers new user trading bonuses

    Polymarket is offering new users a $50 trading bonus upon meeting specific deposit and trade requirements across its sports, politics, and crypto prediction markets.

  13. [BUSINESS] 6 sources
    Polymarket and ProphetX offer trading bonuses for major events

    Prediction markets Polymarket and ProphetX are offering promotional trading bonuses for the Emmy Awards and Sunday Night Football.

  14. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Kalshi launches gold and silver perpetual futures after CFTC approval

    Kalshi has launched CFTC-approved gold and silver perpetual futures, marking its first expansion into non-crypto derivatives following significant volume in its cryptocurrency offerings.

  15. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Prediction markets challenge traditional sportsbooks in advertising

    Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are expanding their advertising presence, accounting for $50 million of the nearly $275 million spent on sports betting ads this year.

  16. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Prediction markets face regulatory scrutiny amid global growth

    The rapid rise of prediction markets is blurring the lines between gambling and financial trading, prompting regulatory assessments by ESMA and oversight by the CFTC in the US.

  17. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Prediction market platforms offer various user bonuses

    Prediction market platforms like FanDuel Predicts, Polymarket, and Kalshi are offering various sign-up bonuses and trading credits to new users in September 2026.

  18. [BUSINESS] 10 sources
    Kalshi expands into precious metals with CFTC-approved perpetual futures

    Kalshi has secured CFTC approval to launch 24/7 gold and silver perpetual futures and is seeking to expand into U.S. equity-linked contracts.

  19. [BUSINESS] 9 sources
    Kalshi trader wins $3.8M on US Open upset

    A Kalshi prediction market trader won nearly $4 million by correctly betting on Ben Shelton's US Open upset against Carlos Alcaraz. The platform is seeing high volume ahead of the NFL season.

  20. [BUSINESS] 7 sources
    Polymarket offers $50 sign-up bonuses for new US users

    Polymarket is offering new US users a $50 trading bonus with a $10 deposit through various September 2026 promotional codes tied to sports and political events.

  21. [BUSINESS] 8 sources
    Kalshi offers promotional bonuses for prediction market trading

    Kalshi is offering new users promotional bonuses and deposit matches to trade on prediction markets, including MLB, college football, and political outcomes.

  22. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Kalshi extends $25 referral bonus through college football Week 1

    Kalshi has extended its $25 deposit match referral bonus through the first week of college football, allowing new users to turn a $25 deposit into $50 in trading funds for football and MLB markets.

  23. [BUSINESS] 8 sources
    Kalshi prediction market sees $5.4B in trades from users under 21

    Young adults aged 18-21 have traded $5.4 billion on the prediction market Kalshi this year, raising concerns over a regulatory loophole that allows sports-related trading before the legal gambling age of 21.

  24. [BUSINESS] 8 sources
    Kalshi prediction market sees $3.9 billion in trading from users aged 18-21

    Young adults aged 18-21 have traded approximately $3.9 billion on the regulated prediction market Kalshi this year, as the platform's total volume exceeds $171 billion.

  25. [BUSINESS] 11 sources
    Prediction markets offer user bonuses for sports trading

    Prediction market platforms Polymarket, Kalshi, and ProphetX are offering sign-up bonuses for new users to trade on MLB, NFL preseason, and college football events.

  26. [BUSINESS] 10 sources
    Kalshi raises $1.12 billion in private equity offering

    Kalshi has raised $1.12 billion in a private equity offering since April 2026, targeting $1.5 billion total. The prediction market operator reports massive growth in trading volume and revenue.

  27. [BUSINESS] 12 sources
    Prediction markets face regulatory scrutiny in US and Canada

    Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi face regulatory battles in the US and Canada as they expand into sports and politics, prompting new legal challenges and financial product developments.

  28. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Polymarket offers $20 trading bonus for new MLB users

    Polymarket is offering new users a $20 bonus when they complete a minimum $10 trade on MLB games, subject to age and location requirements.

  29. [BUSINESS] 5 sources
    Kalshi offers $25 bonus for prediction market trades

    Kalshi is offering new users a $25 bonus upon completing $25 in trades on prediction markets, including MLB games and the BMW Championship.

  30. [BUSINESS] 6 sources
    Polymarket issues new promotional codes for US users

    Polymarket is offering new US users a $20 trading bonus via referral codes ‘MASS’ and ‘OREGON’ after a qualifying $10 deposit, coinciding with major MLB matchups.

  31. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Polymarket and Novig offer trading bonuses for MLB and WNBA markets

    Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Novig are offering promotional trading bonuses for users to trade on MLB and WNBA event contracts.

  32. [BUSINESS] 5 sources
    Kalshi offers up to $500 sign-up bonuses for prediction market traders

    Kalshi is offering new US users sign-up bonuses of up to $500 for trading on prediction markets, including MLB, NFL, and reality TV, upon meeting specific trading requirements.

  33. [BUSINESS] 6 sources
    Kalshi offers up to $500 trading bonuses for new users

    Kalshi is offering new US users a tiered trading bonus of up to $500 after they complete $25 in trades on its prediction markets, including sports, politics, and finance.

  34. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Kalshi and ProphetX offer promotions for NFL preseason trading

    Prediction markets Kalshi and ProphetX are launching promotional offers for users to trade on NFL preseason games through contract-based forecasting.

  35. [BUSINESS] 8 sources
    Sports betting platforms launch various promotional offers for NHL and MLB

    Multiple sportsbooks and prediction markets, including BetMGM, bet365, and FanDuel, are issuing promotional bonuses for NHL, MLB, and NFL preseason wagering.

  36. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Polymarket offers $20 trading bonus for new US users

    New Polymarket users in the US can claim a $20 trading bonus by depositing $10, providing $30 in total funds for markets including MLB and Federal Reserve decisions.

  37. [BUSINESS] 13 sources
    Kalshi reports $148B in 2026 trading volume

    Kalshi's 2026 trading volume has surpassed $148 billion, representing 85.5% of its lifetime activity and a massive increase over 2025 totals.

  38. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Polymarket rolls out new US referral codes with $20 and $50 sports‑betting bonuses

    Polymarket introduced two US referral codes on Aug 4, 2026: OREGON gives a $20 bonus with a $10 deposit, and SILIVE a $50 bonus with a $20 deposit, both for MLB and other sports betting markets.

  39. [BUSINESS] 12 sources
    Polymarket and Kalshi roll out new US promo codes with up to $500 bonuses

    Polymarket and Kalshi unveiled new U.S. promo codes, giving first‑time traders $20‑$500 bonuses for deposits and trades on sports, political and crypto markets as of Aug 2 2026.

  40. [BUSINESS] 16 sources
    US Sportsbooks Roll Out MLB Betting Bonus Promotions in August 2026

    US sportsbooks FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Kalshi, Fanatics and others unveiled MLB betting bonuses ranging from $20 to $1,000 for new users in August 2026.

  41. [BUSINESS] 14 sources
    US Betting Sites Roll Out MLB Promo Bonuses for Late July 2026

    U.S. betting platforms launch July 28‑29, 2026 MLB promo codes, offering bonuses from $20 to $1,500, with state‑age restrictions and trade‑or‑deposit requirements.

  42. [BUSINESS] 16 sources
    Kalshi, Polymarket and other platforms unveil up to $500 bonus promos for MLB betting

    Kalshi, Polymarket, Bet365 and Betr roll out new bonus promos – up to $500 for Kalshi and $20‑$50 for Polymarket – for MLB and other sports, requiring $10‑$25 trades and U.S. residency.

  43. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Polymarket offers $20 bonus for trading on LeBron James team odds

    Polymarket gives new users a $20 bonus for trading on LeBron James' next team, using promo code FOX and a $10 trade.

  44. [TECHNOLOGY] 13 sources
    Polymarket’s $4.3 B World Cup Market Sets On‑Chain Record

    Polymarket’s World Cup “Winner” market hit $4.3 billion on Polygon, a record for on‑chain prediction markets, while the platform launches U.S. promo codes for MLB, PGA, and MLS betting.

  45. [BUSINESS] 9 sources
    Polymarket and Kalshi unveil MLB trading promo codes for US users

    Polymarket and Kalshi rolled out US‑only promo codes in July 2026, giving new users $10‑$50 bonuses for trading MLB games on their regulated prediction‑market platforms.

  46. [BUSINESS] 11 sources
    Polymarket and Kalshi roll out new $10‑$50 promo codes for UFC, MLB, NFL, NBA and World Cup betting

    Polymarket and Kalshi unveiled new $10‑$50 promo codes for U.S. users to trade prediction markets on upcoming UFC, MLB, NFL, NBA and World Cup events.

  47. [BUSINESS] 11 sources
    Kalshi and Polymarket launch bonus promos for World Cup semifinals and MLB All-Star Game

    Kalshi and Polymarket roll out new US‑only welcome bonuses – $10‑$15 for World Cup semifinals and $50 for the MLB All‑Star Game – requiring age 18+, a small deposit and trades on their prediction‑market sites.

  48. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    WTOP Promo Code Offers Cover World Cup and MLB Home Run Derby

    WTOP promo code provides a $1,000 Fanatics Sportsbook bonus for World Cup betting and a $50 Polymarket bonus for MLB Home Run Derby trading.

  49. [BUSINESS] 14 sources
    World Cup and UFC 329 promo codes from Polymarket, Kalshi, Betr and others

    US prediction‑market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, Betr, etc.) are offering sign‑up bonuses from $10 to $200 for the 2026 World Cup quarter‑finals and UFC 329, using promo codes such as STIFFS, BROAD, MASS, A‑

  50. [SPORTS] 2 sources
    USA favored over Belgium for World Cup Round of 16 as betting odds shift

    Betting odds now favor the USA (52%) over Belgium (48%) in the World Cup Round of 16 after FIFA cleared forward Folarin Balogun; promo code ALCOM15 offers a $15 trading bonus.

  51. [BUSINESS] 6 sources
    Polymarket rolls out multiple $50 bonus codes for U.S. sports prediction markets

    Polymarket offers new U.S. users a $50 bonus (with $20 deposit) via codes LABS, CUSE, MASS and SILIVE, covering MLB, UFC, golf and WNBA events.

  52. [SPORTS] 7 sources
    USA vs Belgium World Cup Round of 16 sparks Polymarket $50 bonus promotions

    USA faces Belgium in the World Cup Round of 16; FIFA lifts Balogun’s suspension and Polymarket rolls out $50 bonus promo codes for U.S. traders.

  53. [SPORTS] 6 sources
    World Cup prediction markets roll out bonus promo codes for multiple knockout matches

    Prediction‑market sites launch bonus codes for World Cup knockout games, offering credits ranging from $10 to $50 for trades on matches like Spain‑Portugal, Portugal‑Spain, Mexico‑England, USA‑Belgium, and more

  54. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Polymarket launches $50 bonus invite codes OREGON and CUSE for July 4th weekend

    Polymarket rolled out $50 bonus invite codes OREGON (Oregon) and CUSE (New York) for new U.S. users, creating a $70 starting balance for July 4th weekend World Cup, MLB, F1 and other markets.

  55. [BUSINESS] 6 sources
    Polymarket and Kalshi offer bonus codes for World Cup 2026 knockout matches

    Polymarket and Kalshi launched U.S. bonus codes for World Cup 2026 knockouts – Polymarket’s ALCOM and MASS give $50 on a $20 deposit for Colombia‑Ghana and France‑Paraguay matches, while Kalshi’s OREGONLIVE1 d

  56. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Polymarket launches $50 bonus for new US users via promo codes

    Polymarket gives US new users a $50 bonus after a $20 deposit via promo codes ELITE (nationwide) and MASS (Massachusetts), usable on sports, political and other prediction markets.

  57. [BUSINESS] 10 sources
    Polymarket gives new users $50 bonus for World Cup Round‑of‑16 trading

    Polymarket offers a $50 bonus (after a $20 deposit) to new U.S. users for World Cup round‑of‑16 markets via various promo codes.

  58. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    US Sports Betting Sites Offer Up to $1,000 Bonuses for MLB and World Cup

    Fanatics, theScore Bet and Betr each offer new U.S. users bonuses—up to $1,000 or $200—for MLB and World Cup betting, with age and state eligibility rules.

  59. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Polymarket launches $50 World Cup bonus with new user promo codes

    Polymarket gives new U.S. users a $50 bonus for depositing $20 and betting on World Cup matches using promo codes STIFFS, ELITE or SOUTH.

  60. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Polymarket launches backend engineer hiring drive and $50 new‑user bonus

    Polymarket seeks a blockchain‑savvy backend engineer and offers US users a $50 sign‑up bonus with code ELITE after a $20 deposit.

  61. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Polymarket users win and lose millions on 2026 World Cup prediction markets

    Polymarket and Kalshi saw billions bet on the 2026 World Cup, with traders losing up to $9 million but others winning up to $9.24 million in single‑day payouts.

  62. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Polymarket and Kalshi launch World Cup prediction market promo offers

    Polymarket and Kalshi each offer World Cup‑linked bonuses for new users in the U.S., with $50 and $15 rewards respectively after qualifying deposits or trades.

  63. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Polymarket and Novig Launch Bonus Promotions for New Users

    Polymarket offers new users a $50 bonus after a $20 deposit, while Novig gives $50 in coins after a $5 spend, both targeting US bettors for sports and World Cup events.

  64. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    US Prediction Market Platforms Offer World Cup Bonus Promotions

    Kalshi and Polymarket each offer US users World Cup bonuses – $10 via code RATE on Kalshi and $50 via code SOUTH on Polymarket – for new accounts meeting deposit and KYC requirements.

  65. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Polymarket launches $50 sign‑up bonus for MLB prediction markets

    Polymarket offers U.S. users a $50 bonus after a $20 deposit to trade MLB prediction contracts, with promo codes for games like Cubs vs Giants and Dodgers vs Angels.

  66. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Polymarket rolls out $50 bonus promotions for US users

    Polymarket offers US users a $20 deposit bonus of $50 via promo codes like ELITE, with a parallel offer tied to the Stanley Cup Final.

  67. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Polymarket rolls out $50 new‑user bonus with ELITE and NYPMAX promo codes

    Polymarket gives new US users a $50 bonus for a $20 deposit using ELITE or NYPMAX promo codes.

  68. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Polymarket launches ELIDE promo code offering $20–$50 bonus to new US users

    Polymarket's ELITE code gives new US users a $20‑$50 bonus after a $20 deposit, unlocking all‑state access to its prediction markets.

Sources

abc17news.com · agrobrasil.org.br · aislesproject.com · al.com · alienwp.com · allard.ubc.ca · audhalbritter.com · awfulannouncing.com · balver-hoehle.de · bbrh.org · bestofneworleans.com · bitcoinethereumnews.com · bitnewsbot.com · blockcast.it · blockonomi.com · blocktempo.com · blog.nj.com · blogs.airdropalert.com · btc-echo.de · ca.sports.yahoo.com · cleveland.com · coincu.com · coindeskjapan.com · coinedition.com · coingape.com · cointelegraph.com · complex.com · covers.com · criptotendencias.com · crossingbroad.com · crypto.news · cryptobreaking.com · cryptobriefing.com · cryptonomist.ch · cryptopolitan.com · dailycaller.com · defirate.com · denverstiffs.com · detlionblood32.wordpress.com · efj.org.jm · elitesportsny.com · europesays.com · exame.com · expo.mlive.com · expo.nj.com · fantasylabs.com · fiestacebadapuan.com.ar · foodtechconnect.com

This summary has been updated 49 times: see revision history