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El Niño 2026-2027 forecast predicts exceptionally strong warming
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued warnings regarding an exceptionally strong El Niño event for the 2026-2027 cycle. Forecasts indicate that sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific could reach between 3.5°C and 3.8°C between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially surpassing the intensity of the 2015-2016 event.
Climate experts and organizations, including NASA and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), note that the phenomenon is developing rapidly. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo cautioned that the event could be unprecedented in strength based on the last four decades of monitoring.
The strengthening El Niño is expected to peak around December 2026. Potential global impacts include altered atmospheric circulation, extreme heat, droughts, and flooding. In South Asia, there are concerns regarding rainfall distribution and rising temperatures, while regions like the Central American Dry Corridor face risks to forests and coral reefs. Some researchers warn that the humanitarian and economic consequences, such as food insecurity and heat-related mortality, may persist or even intensify into 2027.
Entities
Celeste Saulo · India · India Meteorological Department · NASA · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Niño 3.4 region · Pacific Ocean · World Meteorological Organization
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Economic damage from El Niño events often lags behind the actual weather disruption by several years. www.lankanewspapers.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The WMO defines an El Niño when the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region is 0.5°C. thefederal.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The 2026 southwest monsoon in India ended with rainfall approximately 13% below normal. www.businesstoday.in
- [● 5 SOURCES] The WMO forecasts the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly to reach approximately 3.8°C between November 2026 and January 2027. gawahweekly.com · www.businesstoday.in · quediario.com.ar · thefederal.com · index.hu
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The NOAA Climate Prediction Center reported strengthening El Niño conditions in an October 8 diagnostic discussion. thefederal.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly rose from 1.6°C in June to 2.5°C in August. www.businesstoday.in
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) forecast an anomaly of +3.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region. www.theweather.com
- [● 5 SOURCES] The El Niño warming is expected to peak around December 2026. gawahweekly.com · www.businesstoday.in · quediario.com.ar · thefederal.com · index.hu
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The current El Niño event could cause more than 450,000 deaths by February. tn.nova.cz
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Economic damage from El Niño events tends to lag behind the actual weather disruption by several years. www.lankanewspapers.com