World Meteorological Organization warns of intense 2026 El Niño event

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that the 2026 El Niño event will intensify into a very strong phenomenon, peaking at the end of the year with effects expected to last until February 2027. This unprecedented warning, based on high agreement among climate models, indicates a near 100% probability of the phenomenon persisting through early 2027.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have reached up to 2.6 °C above average, with subsurface warming exceeding normal values by more than 8 °C in some areas. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the episode could deal a massive blow to global communities and economies through droughts and floods.

In the Caribbean and Atlantic regions, El Niño typically leads to prolonged droughts and reduced hurricane activity due to increased wind shear. These conditions can impact hydroelectric generation, water supplies, and agricultural irrigation. Conversely, the La Niña phase brings higher humidity and increased tropical cyclone activity. A ‘Super Niño’—defined by anomalies of 2.0 °C or more—poses additional risks of extreme heatwaves.