Xbox Series X|S shipments forecast to fall to 2.5 million units in 2026 as PlayStation 6 expected to outsell Project Hel

Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence project that Microsoft’s Xbox Series X|S shipments will shrink to roughly 2.5 million units in 2026, with first‑quarter deliveries falling below 500,000 – the lowest since tracking began. The decline is linked to a slower cadence of exclusive titles, Microsoft’s growing emphasis on subscription services, and price competition from Sony’s PlayStation 5.

The same report foresees a broader 19.5 % drop in global console shipments to 33.9 million units for 2026, before a modest rebound in 2027. In contrast, Sony’s upcoming PlayStation 6 is projected to sell about 17.2 million units by 2030, roughly 10 million more than Microsoft’s next‑generation “Project Helix” console, which analysts expect to reach 7.3 million units in the same period. The outlook notes Microsoft’s recent 200‑person layoffs, rising hardware costs and a shift toward digital‑only distribution, while Sony’s strategy includes discontinuing physical discs after 2028. Both companies face a market where high‑priced flagship games and subscription models are reshaping consumer buying behaviour.