Yale Budget Lab faces scrutiny over IRS enforcement revenue estimates

The Budget Lab (TBL) at Yale, a research center founded by former Biden administration economists, is facing criticism regarding its revenue projections for the Stop CHEATERS Act. While the lab describes itself as a non-partisan policy research center, its analyses and funding have been noted to skew toward the political left.

For a Senate Democratic bill proposing $83 billion in additional IRS enforcement funding, TBL estimated a revenue increase of approximately $998 billion over ten years. This figure significantly exceeds estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which projected a rise of between $100 billion and $200 billion, calling the TBL figure “far above consensus.”

Democratic lawmakers have frequently cited TBL's findings, despite the lab's projections running much higher than historical research from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The debate over these estimates is expected to influence upcoming year-end tax package negotiations in Congress.