YENİ Parti projected to gain single-party majority in 2026 election simulation

A July 2026 election simulation conducted by Gündemar Araştırma suggests a major shift in the Turkish political landscape. According to the report, YENİ Parti emerged as the leading party with 38.58% of the vote, securing 308 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM), which would grant them a single-party majority.

The simulation indicates significant declines for established parties. The AKP is projected to receive 27.43% of the vote and 225 seats. The MHP is expected to drop to 5.18% with 12 seats, while the DEM Parti is projected to secure 55 seats.

Notably, the simulation predicts that the CHP would fall to 2.94% of the vote, failing to meet the electoral threshold and losing all its parliamentary representation. Other parties, including İYİ Parti and YRP, are also projected to fall below the threshold and remain outside of Parliament.