[REVISION HISTORY]

Super El Niño intensifies, threatening global health and ag

Updated 47 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-10 23:02 UTC → 2026-09-11 16:09 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The 2026–27 Super El Niño is intensifying, with ~~projections from~~ the ~~ECMWF suggesting that by early October 2026, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 1+2 region could reach 5.64°C above average. NOAA indicates~~ federal Climate Prediction Center reporting a ~~greater than~~ 90 percent ~~probability~~ chance of a ‘very strong’ El Niño ~~during the 2026/27 winter. This intensification coincides with a massive marine heatwave, with global sea surface temperatures reaching~~ this fall and winter, and a ~~historical maximum~~ 75 percent chance of ~~21.1°C~~ it becoming the strongest on record. The event has recorded the fastest rise in the Relative Niño 3.4 indicator ever observed. In South America, the phenomenon is creating a north-south divide in solar irradiance; northern regions are seeing sunnier conditions, while persistent cloud cover has reduced solar irradiance in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. In Chile, rare August ~~2026. Commodity markets~~ snowstorms in the Atacama Desert have caused potential losses for solar PV assets, alongside severe rainfall and flooding in other regions. Agricultural impacts are ~~experiencing significant volatility.~~ expanding. In Bolivia, while high soil moisture reserves (70-80%) provide a foundation for the summer crop campaign, experts warn that above-normal rainfall poses risks of flooding, loss of planted area, and increased pests. Commodity volatility persists, with Arabica coffee prices ~~recently reached a~~ hitting six-and-a-half-month ~~high~~ highs due to ~~delays in the 2026-2027~~ Brazilian ~~harvest, while~~ harvest delays, and cocoa prices ~~rose above~~ exceeding $6,300 per ton ~~in early September~~ following flooding in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Regional emergency preparations are intensifying. In ~~response to the expected persistence of~~ Colombia, the ~~phenomenon through February 2027, South American nations are ramping up preparedness.~~ UNGRD has allocated $38,900 million to bolster operational and military capacities. In ~~Argentina, municipalities are~~ Uruguay, President Yamandú Orsi is coordinating ~~emergency response plans~~ financial and ~~cleaning drainage systems,~~ logistical support for preventive infrastructure. In Argentina, provincial governments in Chaco and San Juan are implementing contingency protocols, while a collective environmental injunction in Córdoba seeks to mandate urgent hydraulic infrastructure works. Colombia has established a roadmap to manage risks related to water shortages, energy generation, and forest fires, with the UNGRD allocating $38,900 million to strengthen operational capacities. In Chile, the government is hiring approximately 10,000 workers through Conaf to prepare for a complex summer wildfire season. Meanwhile, Uruguay is coordinating contingency funds and preventive works with local mayors. Research utilizing Galápagos Islands coral samples indicates that El Niño events are currently stronger than at any point in the last thousand years, potentially 40 percent stronger than pre-industrial levels due to ~~anthropogenic climate change. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described the event as ‘oversized,’ warning that the planet is entering ‘uncharted territory.’~~ mitigate flooding risks.

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