Arctic geopolitical and environmental competition

The Arctic region is experiencing rapid environmental transformation due to climate change, with melting sea ice and thawing permafrost creating new maritime routes and providing access to natural resources such as oil, minerals, and rare earth elements.

This environmental shift has intensified geopolitical competition. Initial concerns focused on a governance gap within the Arctic Council, which excludes military matters, leaving the region’s critical military and nuclear infrastructure vulnerable to rivalry among Russia, NATO members, and China. There is also noted potential for the Global South, led by India’s 2026 BRICS presidency, to influence Arctic affairs by linking regional warming to global impacts like the Indian monsoon.

As the situation evolves, the region has emerged as a strategic flashpoint. Russia is asserting territorial claims, China is seeking to expand its influence, and the United States has refocused attention on Greenland as a strategic interest. These tensions are further exacerbated by heightened friction between Russia, the United States, and NATO following the war in Ukraine.