[REVISION HISTORY]

Argentina inflation trends and recessionary risks

Updated 62 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-10-25 08:35 UTC → 2026-10-25 15:39 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In August 2026, Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) reported that monthly inflation slowed to 1.7%, the lowest monthly increase in 14 months. This deceleration follows a 2.1% rate recorded in July. The annual inflation rate stands at approximately 33.5%, while year-to-date inflation has reached 21.3%. By late September 2026, economic indicators suggested deepening recessionary risks. Analyst Guillermo Oliveto noted that while high-growth sectors like agriculture, mining, and oil drive GDP, they have limited impact on total employment. Conversely, sectors comprising 44% of GDP—construction, commerce, and industry—are performing well below 2023 levels. Recent INDEC data confirms the economy contracted by 1.74% in August 2026 compared to August 2025, following a 2.8% contraction in July. This downturn was driven by significant drops in fishing (-15.7%), financial intermediation (-3.8%), and manufacturing (-3.2%). The construction sector is facing a crisis, with a 4.4% year-on-year decline in August 2026. ~~Local merchants~~ A report ~~sales decreases of 30% to 40%, citing~~ by the ~~paralysis~~ National University of ~~public works~~ La Plata (UNLP) further detailed that real estate and ~~limited credit. In response, Banco Hipotecario has expanded credit conditions for modular homes, extending loan terms from six to eight years. Consumer~~ construction activity ~~remains weak; supermarket sales fell 3.7% year-on-year~~ in ~~August at constant prices, marking eight consecutive months~~ 66 municipalities of ~~decline. A survey~~ the Buenos Aires province fell by ~~Brain Network revealed that 82%~~ 9.4% year-on-year during the second quarter of ~~Argentines struggle to make ends meet, with 21% described as “desbordados” (overwhelmed) due to insufficient income and debt. Recent data highlights~~ 2026, driven by a ~~deepening crisis~~ 20.1% reduction in ~~construction, which saw~~ real estate operations. Argentina is approaching a ~~25% decline in activity between mid-2023 and mid-2024. Gustavo Weiss, president of~~ technical recession, as the ~~Argentine Chamber~~ Monthly Estimator of ~~Construction (CAMARCO), warned that no significant recovery is expected soon, noting~~ Economic Activity (EMAE) fell 1.7% year-on-year in August. To avoid two consecutive quarters of decline, the ~~loss~~ economy requires a growth rate of approximately ~~120,000 jobs and the closure~~ 2.8% to 3% in September. Despite a national public sector financial surplus in September, consumer confidence remains low, with 71% of ~~roughly 2,000 companies.~~ citizens reporting a poor perception of the economy.

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