Armenia-Russia geopolitical and domestic tensions

Armenia continues to navigate intense geopolitical and economic pressures. Russia has reportedly threatened to cease gas supplies by November 1, 2026, citing potential force majeure, while demanding that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan withdraw from discussions regarding the 102nd Russian military base, cease prosecution of pro-Russian figures, and abandon measures against Russian capital in the railway and Gazprom sectors. Russia has also suggested Armenia cancel its EU membership process law or hold a national referendum.

Domestic political and legal tensions are escalating. Preliminary hearings have commenced in the case against Republic Party leader Gagik Tsarukyan, who faces charges of fraud, embezzlement, and money laundering; during these proceedings, the court rejected a motion to remove a defense attorney. Additionally, the detention of Adequacy Union leader Artur Danielyan has sparked legal debate, with human rights advocates arguing his two-month detention for refusing to express regret violates freedom of expression and the principle against self-incrimination.

Societal divisions remain high. Miriam Lexmann, the European Parliament’s permanent rapporteur for Armenia, noted that society is deeply divided over whether to align with Europe or remain under Russian influence, advising Pashinyan to exercise extreme caution. Internal friction also persists within the Prime Minister’s staff regarding a report on a crisis in the Armenian Apostolic Church involving alleged violations of monastic vows. Meanwhile, commentator Nairi Khikyan has alleged the government is using discussions regarding territory exchanges, specifically concerning Tigranashen, to manipulate public sentiment.