[REVISION HISTORY]

Israeli election race tightens

Updated 1 time since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-07-25 19:59 UTC → 2026-07-29 09:31 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The 25th Knesset dissolved on 17 July 2026 after a full four‑year term, prompting a general election for 27 October 2026. In its final weeks parliament approved settlement‑funding packages worth 2.375 billion shekels for new West‑Bank communities and connecting roads. Polling shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party slipping further. A 24 July *Maariv* poll placed Likud at 20 seats – its lowest count since June 2025 – while former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yeshar party rose to an estimated 23 seats, overtaking Likud. The same poll gave Ma'an 17 seats, Israel Beitenu 10, and the Democrats 11, with Arab parties steady at 10. The anti‑Netanyahu bloc therefore projects a slim parliamentary majority of about 61 seats against 49 for the governing coalition; scenarios that could involve a Netanyahu‑Bennett partnership are being discussed. Analysts label the 27 October vote the most consequential in Israel’s history, noting deep polarization, Netanyahu’s three criminal indictments, and widespread protests against his proposed judicial overhaul. Hundreds of thousands have demonstrated weekly amid the ongoing conflict that began with Hamas’s Oct 7 attack. ~~Opposition parties lead in polls but a political stalemate appears likely, as many parties refuse~~ New polling data released after 24 July indicate Netanyahu is likely to ~~join forces~~ lose, with ~~Arab‑linked factions or Netanyahu’s bloc.~~ his security credentials eroded by the war that has expanded to involve Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Challenger figures now include Eisenkot, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, and former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman, all of whom are projected to draw significant support. The Democratic party completed a fully virtual primary on 20‑21 July, fielding a gender‑balanced list that projects ten seats and endorses a two‑state solution. On 21 July security services arrested 29‑year‑old Nahmad Awad of Nazareth on suspicion of contacting Hamas to obtain weapons for an attack on National Security Minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir. Prosecutors have filed a statement of claim and are preparing a serious criminal indictment. Ben‑Gvir thanked the forces, said the attempt was not isolated, and reiterated his hard‑line stance on terrorism and security policy.

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