Bolivia natural gas production decline

Bolivia is facing a projected decline in natural gas production that may lead to a loss of energy self-sufficiency. Experts and industry groups warn that the country could transition from an exporter to an importer between 2028 and 2030 to meet domestic demand.

Geologist Gustavo Navarro has noted that declining production and a lack of new discoveries will deplete existing reserves, suggesting that the state-owned YPFB should negotiate gas imports from Argentina’s Vaca Muerta field. However, the estimated cost of importing gas presents a significant economic challenge.

The Bolivian Chamber of Hydrocarbons and Energy (CBHE) reports that national production has fallen from a peak of 60.8 million cubic meters per day in 2014 to approximately 27 million cubic meters per day. This decline impacts state revenue and foreign currency inflows.

To mitigate these risks, the CBHE is urging the approval of a new Hydrocarbons Law to attract investment through increased legal certainty and reduced bureaucracy. The Chamber also suggests rebalancing the ‘government take’—which currently reaches between 82% and 95%—to more closely align with regional averages of 50% to 60%, ensuring reasonable returns for investors facing high exploration risks.