[REVISION HISTORY]

Brazil coffee harvest nears completion amid weather and pest

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2026-09-24 02:12 UTC → 2026-09-30 20:35 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Brazil coffee harvest nears completion amid weather ~~risks~~ and pest

The coffee market continues to face volatility due to supply chain disruptions and severe weather in Brazil. In Romania, coffee prices have surged as Arabica reserves approach levels not seen since the early 1990s, driven by reduced inventories and logistical bottlenecks. While the US Department of Agriculture previously offered optimistic harvest forecasts, local analysts have highlighted how low rainfall in Minas Gerais and extreme weather from El Niño have threatened supply quality. As of late September 2026, the Brazilian coffee harvest for the 2026/27 crop is nearing completion. In Minas Gerais, the Sistema Faemg Senar estimates the Arabica harvest will reach 33.4 million bags by 2026, a figure higher than previous projections from Conab and IBGE. However, recent rainfall in the Cerrado Mineiro region between September 10 and 16 has slowed the final stages of harvesting and interrupted the collection of ground coffee, despite 91% of total production having been processed. Climate variability remains a central concern. The Sociedade Rural Brasileira (SRB) has initiated discussions on technological strategies to build resilience against weather instability, noting that thermal or water stress can cause plants to divert up to 50% of their energy toward combating oxidative stress rather than production. Looking toward the 2027 season, unusual rainfall has triggered a significant new flowering cycle. While this could accelerate the 2027 harvest to as early as May, experts warn that high humidity increases risks of fungal diseases and non-uniform fruit maturation. Consequently, Arabica futures in New York have faced downward pressure due to expectations of increased global supply and higher availability of Brazilian coffee. By late September 2026, market trends indicate that while commodity prices face downward pressure from high supply expectations, Brazilian retail coffee consumption rose by 4.65% during the second quadrimester of 2026, aided by lower consumer costs and milder temperatures.

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