Brazil energy and transport emissions trends

Data from the Centro Brasil no Clima (CBC) indicates that greenhouse gas emissions from Brazil’s transport sector rose by 56% between 2005 and 2024, a rate that exceeded the country’s 48% GDP growth in the same period. Researchers from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) noted that while increasing anhydrous ethanol mixtures and producing more efficient vehicles helped mitigate emissions in passenger transport, these measures have been insufficient to meet Paris Agreement carbon neutrality goals. The impact of electric vehicles remains negligible, and the freight sector remains a major challenge, accounting for 53.9% of total transport emissions due to a heavy dependency on diesel with no currently scalable alternatives.

To address long-term needs, the government published the National Energy Plan (PNE) 2055. The plan projects that renewable sources could account for over 80% of the national energy matrix by 2055, with electricity generation potentially reaching 99% clean power through solar and wind expansion. To support this, biofuel production is projected to increase fivefold and electrical transmission capacity is expected to triple. However, the government continues to focus on hydrocarbon exploration in the Equatorial Margin, specifically in the Barreirinhas and Pará-Maranhão basins, to ensure energy security.

Recent developments indicate hurdles in these transitions. The renewable sector is experiencing a slowdown in wind and solar projects due to high interest rates, regulatory uncertainties, and electrical system surpluses leading to compulsory cuts. In transport, decarbonization faces an impasse between technology needs and infrastructure investment, leading experts to propose ‘green corridors’ to facilitate refueling and recharging across Brazil’s continental dimensions.