Brazilian municipal population demographic trends

The IBGE has released 2026 population estimates for Brazilian municipalities, highlighting demographic trends in Alagoas and Bahia. In Alagoas, the population is estimated at 3,221,128, showing a nearly stable growth of 0.01% compared to 2025. Maceió is the most populous municipality with 995,134 residents, while Pindoba is the least populous with 2,785. Alagoas recorded one of the lowest population growth rates in the country. In Bahia, 43.9% of the 417 municipalities saw an estimated population decrease. Only eight municipalities reported growth above 0.9%, with several increases attributed to territorial boundary updates. Jussari recorded the highest growth rate at 5.46% due to territory gains, while Salvador saw a population decline of 0.17% to 2.559 million inhabitants. These estimates serve as critical parameters for the Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU) when calculating State and Municipal Participation Funds (FPE and FPM). On a national scale, the 2026 IBGE data estimates Brazil’s total population at 214.2 million, reflecting a demographic deceleration with a geometric growth rate of 0.37%, down from 0.39% in the previous period. Regional variations are significant: Roraima, Santa Catarina, and Mato Grosso recorded growth rates exceeding 1%, while Alagoas, Rio de Janeiro, and Rio Grande do Sul saw the lowest growth. The Southeast remains the most populous region, housing 41.6% of the population, followed by the Northeast at 26.8%. Urban trends indicate that four capitals—Salvador, Natal, Belém, and Belo Horizonte—experienced population declines, with Salvador recording the largest decrease among capitals at 0.17%. Conversely, Boa Vista saw the highest growth among capitals at 3.19%. São Paulo remains the most populous city with 11,911,337 inhabitants, followed by Rio de Janeiro (6.7 million) and Brasília (3 million). Newer data confirms the national population reached approximately 214.2 million as of July 1, 2026.