[REVISION HISTORY]

Brazil ethanol price advantage widens, sales rise

Updated 7 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-08-26 23:25 UTC → 2026-08-29 13:51 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The ethanol-gasoline price gap in Brazil continued to widen through mid-August 2026, reinforcing the biofuel’s economic advantage. Following a decline in late July where the national average for hydrated ethanol fell to R$4.00/L, data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) showed further downward trends. Between August 2 and August 8, the average price dropped 1.50% to R$3.94/L, and by the period of August 9–15, it fell another 0.76% to R$3.91/L. Competitiveness against gasoline remained strong. The national average parity ratio dropped from 60.15% in early August to 59.88% by mid-month. While the standard economic threshold for ethanol advantage is typically 70% of the gasoline price, UNICA noted that the recent economic advantage represents the greatest since 2018. During the week of August 16–22, the national average price for hydrated ethanol remained stable at R$3.91 per liter. While 14 states reported price decreases, regional volatility persisted; for example, Goiás saw a 2.58% decrease, while Minas Gerais experienced a 3.45% increase. Ethanol remained economically competitive in ten states and the Federal District, with parity remaining well below the 70% threshold in markets such as Mato Grosso, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul. In São Paulo, market indicators showed conflicting trends. While some reports indicated a fifth consecutive week of decline in the spot market, others noted an 11% cumulative increase in August due to higher seller firmness and lower availability. According to Cepea, producers in São Paulo are maintaining high asking prices due to comfortable cash positions and sufficient storage capacity, leading to low transaction volumes as distributors face higher costs to replenish stocks. By late August, ValeCard data indicated that fuel prices, including gasoline and diesel S-10, saw their third consecutive month of decline. Ethanol experienced the most significant drop, falling 2.06% compared to July.

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