Central Asian economic growth trends

Central Asian economies demonstrated significant industrial and retail growth throughout the first half of 2026.

In Kyrgyzstan, industrial output increased by 12.7% year-on-year between January and June, leading other Eurasian Economic Union members. This growth was primarily driven by a 38.5% surge in the mining and quarrying sector, alongside expansions in water and waste management and energy. While the industrial base showed signs of diversification into chemicals and vehicle manufacturing, manufacturing sector growth slowed to 0.4% by July.

Concurrently, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan reported strong economic indicators. Tajikistan saw retail trade turnover rise by 35.9% in the first half of the year, reaching 38.3 billion somoni, with a notable 48.7% increase in June. In Uzbekistan, industrial production grew by 7.9% over the first seven months of 2026, totaling 795.4 trillion soums, largely propelled by a 9% increase in the manufacturing sector, specifically in machinery, equipment, and leather products.

In Kazakhstan, the manufacturing sector reached 18.8 trillion tenge, with vehicle production increasing to the point that manufacturing output surpassed the mining sector’s share of total output for the first time. Regarding monetary policy, Kazakhstan’s National Bank maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 9–11% but raised its 2027 outlook to 6.5–8.5%, citing external inflation and fiscal impulses.