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Central European election polling and popularity shifts

Updated 12 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-10 12:48 UTC → 2026-09-14 05:59 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In Slovakia, parliamentary election polling remains highly competitive between Progresívne Slovensko (PS) and Smer-SD. While previous Ipsos and INFOSTAT data showed a near-deadlock or a slight Smer lead, a recent August poll by the AKO agency for TV JOJ 24 indicated PS leading with 21% (39 seats), followed by Smer-SD at 17.7% (33 seats) and Republika at 9.8% (18 seats). However, a new SCIO opinion poll shows a shift in momentum, with Smer-SD leading PS for the first time since March 2024. Although the margin is statistically insignificant, Smer-SD received 17.32% of decided voters compared to 16.94% for PS. This contrasts with May data, where PS held a lead of 19.70% to Smer-SD's 15.41%. Other parties in the SCIO poll include Republika at 10.45%, Hnutie SLOVENSKO at 9.30%, HLAS-SD at 9.04%, and SaS at 8.41%, suggesting up to eight parties could enter parliament. Amidst these shifts, political discourse regarding stability has emerged. President Peter Pellegrini suggested a ‘grand coalition’ between Smer-SD and PS could benefit the country if leaders prioritize stability over personal egos. Michal Šimečka, leader of PS, rejected the proposal as an ‘absurdity,’ asserting that Smer-SD must be defeated in the 2027 elections. Commentator Eduard Chmelár has proposed a broader coalition including Hlas to ensure stability. As the October 24 regional elections approach, new electoral alliances are forming. The governing coalition, led by Robert Fico’s Smer-SD, has begun collaborating with the far-right, extra-parliamentary movement Republika. By September 2026, polling trends show a resurgence for PS. An NMS Market Research poll conducted in early September indicates that if elections were held then, PS would lead with 21.6%, while Smer-SD holds 16.2%. Notably, Republika has seen a significant rise to 15.6%, closely approaching Smer-SD's support level.

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